Global Business Risks and Opportunities: Trumponomics, Brexit and the Year 2017: Regional integration is not an end in itself, but a strategic choice that helps firms and nations to maximize the benefits of globalization. Trade liberalization, rapid advances in technology, and the rising importance of supranational regulations, among others, are three important factors that explain the global economy’s recent trajectory.Download paper here.
Reconciling the Global Supply and Demand for Food: Can we meet the world’s growing demand for food? In many ways, that is the most important question facing mankind. And yet the answer depends on who you talk to. If you go to international food conferences, you find two groups of people: farmers and neo-Malthusian alarmists. The neo-Malthusians claim they see “clear signs” that the world is running out of food, characterized by gruesome images of people on the verge of starvation across the globe.Download paper here
On the eve of the Iranian presidential election in May, Iranian President Rouhani has much to feel good about. Thanks to his tireless efforts, Iran’s economy has moved from a recession in 2015/2016 to 7.4% GDP growth in the first half of 2016/2017. But U.S. President Trump’s opposition to the nuclear agreement could deter investment and trade with Iran and threaten to turn Iran’s recovery into another painful recession for the embattled Iranian people. Download paper here.
On the eve of Beijing’s May 2017 Summit on its New Silk Road strategy and plans, historians may well ask how China was able to turn the tables on America in Eurasia. Just six years ago, Eurasian strategists were bullish on America’s New Silk Road strategy and plans. That perception was punctuated by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s “New Silk Road” speech on 20 July 2011 in Chennai, India. Back then, China was on the sidelines. In contrast, General Dave Petraeus and his tiger team at the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) were front and center, creating an inclusive New Silk Road strategy with plans for infrastructure that would go through Afghanistan and turn enemies into friends and aid into trade. And all of this would promote shared prosperity and collective security. Download paper here
MAY 2017: Can Uganda Step Up to New Economic Challenges
Back in the 1970s, Uganda was one of the worst run economies in the world. Uganda suffered through a lost decade when Idi Amin was in power in the 1970s. Thankfully, Uganda’s economic performance dramatically improved when a new government armed with serious economic reforms took power in the country in January of 1986. In the 31 years since then, the Uganda government orchestrated an amazing economic turnaround. The economy grew at an average rate of 8% between 1990 and 2013. Poverty fell almost in half (from 62% in 2002 to just 33% in 2012). In many ways, Uganda’s is still doing relatively well today. The economy is growing three times faster than an average sub-Saharan African economy. Full paper available here
JUNE 2017: Why Lebanon’s New Government Needs a New Economic Model
After a two and a half year political impasse, Lebanon now has a new government. And after 12 years without a budget Lebanon’s government led by new Prime Minister Saad also has a $15.8 billion budget in the spring of 2017. What’s not clear is whether or not the new government will at least try to create a new economic model. One thing is certain. Lebanon’s old economic model is dangerously over-borrowed domestically and externally. The government borrowed too much money for political patronage rather than infrastructure. Prior to the Syrian Civil War, Lebanon’s financial offsets enabled it to resist economic collapse. Strategic enablers included strong banks and capital inflow from a rich diaspora and GCC countries. Full paper available here.
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